Violent crimes have dramatically increased during the Biden-Harris administration, according to a recent Department of Justice study that appears to refute consistent claims by the Harris campaign – and some in the media – that serious offenses are on a downward trajectory.
Crimes such as rape or sexual assault, aggravated assault, and robbery increased from 2020 to 2023, the Department of Justice’s Bureau of Justice Statistics revealed earlier this month as part of its National Crime Victimization Survey. Across the board, the survey found total instances of reported violent crimes increased from 5.6 per 1,000 individuals aged 12 and over in 2020, when Trump was still in office, to 8.7 per 1,000 in 2023.
The study found 9.8 instances of violent crime per 1,000 people aged 12 and over in 2022, which marks the highest rate during the 2020-2023 era.
Crime is once again a top concern this election cycle, with voters often listing crime behind the economy, ongoing inflation woes, immigration and foreign policy on their list of concerns ahead of voting on Nov. 5.
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During Trump’s debate against Vice President Harris on Sept. 10, the 45th president stated that crime is on the rise in the U.S., while linking the trend to the influx of illegal migrants who crossed the border since 2021.
“All over the world crime is down. All over the world except here,” Trump said. “Crime here is up and through the roof. Despite their fraudulent statements that they made. Crime in this country is through the roof. And we have a new form of crime. It’s called migrant crime. And it’s happening at levels that nobody thought possible.”
ABC News’ David Muir, who co-moderated the debate, interjected that FBI data shows crime is on a downward trajectory.
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“President Trump, as you know, the FBI says overall violent crime is coming down in this country,” Muir said, before Trump added that the FBI didn’t include data from the “worst cities.”
The FBI released its quarterly crime report for 2024 in June, which found violent crime decreased by 15.2% between January-March 2024 compared to the same time period in 2023. The FBI data, however, does not include crimes that were not reported to the police.
On the other hand, the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) is one of the most comprehensive federal surveys, according to some experts, which includes interviewing 230,000 U.S. residents on whether they’ve been the victims of crimes, what the crime entailed and if the crime was reported to police.
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“When David Muir goes and says the FBI shows that crime is down, that’s not what the FBI is measuring,” Crime Prevention Research Center President John Lott told Fox News Digital in an interview this week. “What the FBI measures is that reported crime went down, and that’s a big difference between total and reported crime. We know most crimes aren’t reported to the police. And the rate that people report crimes to the police depends in part on things like whether they think the guys are going to be arrested or not.”
Lott noted that arrest rates have dipped, with 2022 data showing only 20% of reported violent crimes resulted in an arrest in major cities.
“So, if people don’t think that the criminals are going to be caught and punished, it reduces the returns for some people reporting the crimes to the police to begin with,” he argued.
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An opinion piece published in the Wall Street Journal this week argued that the National Crime Victimization Survey is far more reliable than FBI crime data for five reasons: NCVS data is finalized before it’s published, unlike the FBI data that shows partial-year data; the FBI overhauled its reporting system in 2021 that makes year-to-year comparisons more difficult; the NCVS study represents data nationally via its surveys, while the FBI data does not include stats from some massive police departments such as the Los Angeles PD; the FBI “isn’t considered a principal statistical agency” and so it is unable to compensate for missing data from agencies such as the LAPD; and the FBI data only includes crimes that were reported to police, while NCVS data includes surveys from individuals who did not report a crime.
On Monday, the FBI did publish its crime report for 2023 and found violent crime declined an estimated 3% when compared to 2022. That FBI report is based only on reported crimes, and includes data from more than 85% of law enforcement agencies enrolled in the FBI’s program.
When asked for comment about NCVS data, the White House pointed to a Politifact article published this month that argued that while both the methodology for the FBI data and the NCVS “have value,” FBI data is typically more reliable. The article argued that while NCVS data may include unreported crimes, it might “also capture events that don’t rise to the level of a crime.”
“As PolitiFact explained when they debunked this lie, ‘the FBI data tends to be more rigorous’ and ‘nongovernmental groups have released data’ that ‘aligns’ with those numbers – whereas ‘the victimization survey excludes murders.’ It would track that apologists for the Trump Administration, which oversaw the biggest murder rate increase in American history, would cherry pick a survey that excludes murders altogether,” White House spokesman Andrew Bates said.
“Here are the facts: every year in office, the Trump Administration and congressional Republicans attempted to defund the police by cutting the COPS program; then, in 2020, murders spiked more than ever. Now, after making an unprecedented federal investment in public safety, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have delivered a record *drop* in the murder rate and the lowest violence crime in 50 years.”
Lott, who also served as a senior adviser for research and statistics at the DOJ’s Office of Justice Programs, authored an op-ed for Real Clear Politics this month and detailed that the DOJ survey found that total violent crimes are 55.4% higher in 2023 than in 2020, the end of Trump’s tenure, while rape crimes increased by 42%, robbery by 63%,and aggravated assault by 55%. The DOJ survey does not include surveys on murder, but that category is almost always reported to police departments, and subsequently to the FBI, he noted, and makes up about 1% of the U.S.’ total violent crimes.
The FBI’s quarterly data found murders dropped by 13% in 2023 compared to 2022, but the rate remains 5% higher than pre-pandemic data from 2019, Lott explained.
The Associated Press published a fact-check following the presidential debate and determined Trump’s claim that violent crime has been on the rise under the Biden-Harris administration was false, citing the NCVS study outlining that the rate of violent victimizations in 2023 was not statistically different from the rate in 2019.
“The 2023 rate was higher than the 2020 (6.6 per 1,000) and 2021 (7.5 per 1,000) rates but was comparable to 5 years ago in 2019 and consistent with the overall downward trend since 1993 (33.8 per 1,000),” the NCVS study states.
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Lott countered that the AP report failed to “mention whether the rate is statistically different than in 2020 or 2021.”
“Nor do they mention how large the increases are. Trump’s point was that violent crime had increased during the Biden-Harris administration. The rate in 2022 was statistically significantly higher than in either of those previous years. The violent crime rate in 2022 and 2023 was also significantly higher,” he wrote in his Real Clear Politics op-ed.
“Total felonious violent crime increased by 19% from 2019 to 2023, and there is only one other time when the increase over four years was larger.”
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Lott found that the 55% increase in total violent crime between 2021-2023 was the “largest percentage increase over three years” in the roughly 50 years the NCVS has collected crime data.
“The next largest percentage increase over three years was in 2006 and that was 27%. The percentage increase under Biden is slightly more than twice the largest previous increase. Now, if you want to take it from 2019 for serious violent crime, then what you see is it’s increased by 19% from 2019 to 2023. That’s the second-largest percentage increase in serious violent crime that we’ve ever seen. That’s a huge increase. And those percentage increases are both very statistically significant,” he said.
Fox News Digital reached out to the Harris campaign for comment on the data, but did not immediately receive replies.
After the NCVS data was published this month, Trump touted it as evidence supporting his debate remark that violent crimes have increased under the Biden-Harris administration.
“You remember where David Muir tried to correct me that crime is rampant like never before?” Trump said from the campaign trail in California this month.
“I guess [the DOJ] probably watched the debate and they heard this foolish man, this foolish fool make that statement to me,” Trump added.
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