The Senate race in Michigan has emerged as a much bigger Republican pickup opportunity than originally imagined as former Rep. Mike Rogers recently tied his Democrat opponent with a key group, according to a new poll.
Michigan Republican strategist Jason Cabel Roe was not initially expecting the Republican traction that Rogers is now seeing in the state due to Michigan’s recent history of electing primarily Democrat senators.
GOP operatives have agreed that the Michigan race’s status has come as a welcome surprise.
“It seems like Michigan may be a little bit more competitive than Ohio,” a senior Republican strategist told Fox News Digital, remarking that races in West Virginia, Montana and Ohio have been traditionally understood as the best Republican opportunities this cycle.
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“What I’ve seen shows that Michigan is extremely competitive,” he explained.
The seat is currently occupied by outgoing Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich.
In a new AARP-commissioned Michigan poll, Rogers is tied with Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., among voters over 50 years old, 46%-46%. With all voters, the race remains tight, with Slotkin slightly ahead, 47% to 44%.
Bob Ward, a partner with the bipartisan polling team Fabrizio Ward, said it is “definitely a battleground Senate race.”
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Slotkin led Rogers by just one point among registered voters, 42% to 41%, in a separate poll from the New York Times and Siena College in early August.
Rogers has demonstrated his race as one of the closest this cycle so far and operatives have pointed to several reasons.
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Cabel Roe cited the Michigan race as evidence of the importance of candidate quality when it comes to winning elections. He said Rogers, a former congressman and chair of the House Intel committee, is a better prospect than some of the other Republicans running in tight Senate races across the country.
Further, he noted the fact that Rogers isn’t taking on an incumbent like many of the other Republicans. Because of this, Slotkin faces many of the same challenges in her campaign for the Senate seat that Rogers does.
One aspect that Cabel Roe said may have been overlooked in considering the competitiveness of Michigan is the relatively large Muslim constituency and their disapproval of the Biden-Harris administration’s actions in the war in Gaza between Israel and terrorist group Hamas.
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Cabel Roe doesn’t expect disaffected Muslim voters to turn to Republicans but said they could choose not to vote at all, hurting Democrats.
Last month, nonpartisan political handicapper the Cook Political Report shifted the Michigan Senate race from “Lean Democratic” to “Toss Up,” reflecting the election’s competitive nature. Also in the category are Senate races in Montana and Ohio.
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