Sen. JD Vance, running on the GOP ticket alongside former President Trump, could help Republicans in “vulnerable Rust Belt states” this cycle, but he might not play as big a role in his home state of Ohio, according to strategists familiar with campaigns.
Vance currently serves as the junior senator from Ohio, a state where vulnerable Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is defending his congressional seat in one of the Republicans’ best pickup opportunities of the cycle.
“I think Trump looked at the map and realized JD Vance could be of help in the vulnerable Rust Belt states though word was he has been trending this way for a few weeks,” Mark Penn, Democrat strategist and CEO of Stagwell Inc., told Fox News Digital of the vice presidential pick.
Penn added that “Rubio might have helped in the southwest, but Vance will be much more useful in the Midwest.”
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Charlie Cook, political analyst and founder of the Cook Political Report, an independent nonpartisan elections handicapper, said that historically, vice presidential picks do not make a big difference in their home state races.
“People vote for president, not for vice president. Vice presidential running mates don’t make much difference in or out of their home states,” Cook told Fox News Digital when asked about whether Vance’s vice presidential nomination could play a role in the Ohio Senate race.
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“I don’t think that having Vance on the ticket will make that much difference in Ohio. If Brown loses, he was probably already going to lose,” he added.
Cook added that he believes Trump chose Vance as his running mate to reinforce the MAGA base.
“I don’t think Vance was a bad pick at all, but it was a reinforcement pick as opposed to an expansionary pick, it does not bring new support in, just reinforces what Trump already had,” he added. “I think it was more of a future MAGA leader pick more than a ‘I need this guy to get me over the finish line first’ choice.”
“I do think that the Trump-Vance campaign will pretty much park him in a string for states from Pennsylvania through Wisconsin – maybe Minnesota. But I doubt that it will have that great of an impact, running mates usually don’t,” Cook said.
Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said that Vance could help “win working class voters” in states such as Montana, where Republicans are looking to oust Democrat Sen. Jon Tester.
“Republicans want JD Vance campaigning with our Senate candidates, Democrats cannot say the same of [Vice President] Kamala Harris. JD knows how to win working class voters, and importantly, will help Republicans appeal to lunch-bucket Democrats who believe Democrat policies have gotten far too radical,” Daines said in a statement.
Trump revealed Vance was his pick for vice president on Monday, and the two were officially named to the 2024 GOP ticket during night one of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.
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