The Senate race in Michigan was moved to a “Toss Up” on Thursday by a top nonpartisan political handicapper, who cited the continued concerns surrounding President Biden and his candidacy as a potential “drag” on Democrats.
The Cook Political Report changed the Senate race from “Lean Democratic” to “Toss Up,” putting Senate Democrats at greater risk of losing the majority in the next Congress.
The seat is currently occupied by Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., who is retiring after her term ends.
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The race was already more competitive due to the loss of the Democrats’ incumbent advantage and only made more so by former President Trump’s performance in the swing state.
The state’s Senate primaries will be held on Aug. 6, leaving just months for the general election campaigns.
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For the Democrats, Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., is considered the frontrunner for the nomination. She notably flipped a Republican district in the state when she was elected to the House. She will face actor Hill Harper in the primary, who is currently considered an underdog but has made significant efforts to appeal to the large Arab population in Michigan and contrast himself with Slotkin, particularly on the war in Gaza between Israel and terrorist group Hamas.
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Republicans also have several choices. Former Rep. Mike Rogers is the frontrunner and enjoys the endorsement of Trump. However, he still has to beat two challengers, businessman Sandy Pensler and former Rep. Justin Amash.
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In Cook’s rationale for changing the race’s rating, analyst Jessica Taylor wrote, “Following Joe Biden’s debate performance two weeks ago, many Democrats’ concerns turned to not whether the president would win reelection — a diminishing prospect — but if he would drag down-ballot Democrats down with him.”
A Fox News Poll from April, several months prior to Biden’s poor debate showing, showed Trump defeating the president, 49% to 46%. In April 2020, before Biden flipped the swing state, he polled ahead of Trump, 49%-41%.
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